As Monsoon Patterns Shift, Rainfall Deficit Persists in Key Regions
Weather experts are predicting a challenging outlook for rain revival across India in the next 10 days and beyond, with certain regions likely to experience continued dry spells. The consensus among top meteorologists is that while some areas such as Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Odisha, east Madhya Pradesh, and Uttar Pradesh could witness rain due to an impending monsoon low, the situation is less promising for other parts of the country.
President of Skymet Weather Services, G P Sharma, noted that Maharashtra, including Mumbai, might experience a subdued monsoon in the coming fortnight. The weather patterns also forecast below-normal rainfall for the southern peninsular region, encompassing Maharashtra and other states. The outlook isn’t favorable for the interiors of Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Gujarat, and Rajasthan either, as a looming low-pressure area could shift the monsoon trough towards the Himalayan foothills, adversely impacting India’s core monsoon zone.
Sharma explained that the northwestern parts of India might observe sporadic and brief periods of rainfall over the next few days. He anticipated scattered light rain with occasional moderate spells in the region, except for the areas along the Himalayan foothills.
According to Dr. Akshay Deoras, a research scientist at the University of Reading, UK, a comprehensive monsoon revival across India isn’t anticipated for August. Consequently, the bulk of rainfall activity will likely remain confined to northern hilly states, the northeastern region, Himalayan foothills, and eastern areas of the country. Dr. Deoras attributed the current dry spell across various regions to El Nino and the absence of intraseasonal weather patterns.
“The ongoing rainfall deficit of -4% since June 1 is likely to worsen, and the subdued conditions in Maharashtra are expected to continue until the end of August,” he cautioned.
Dr. Deoras further elucidated, “The phenomenon we are witnessing can be termed a ‘break-monsoon’ situation. This scenario entails a shift in the primary monsoon rainfall activity to the Himalayan foothills, north, and northeast hilly states, leaving other regions comparatively dry. This shift leads to heightened moisture influx, consequently augmenting rainfall in these hilly states.”
Vineet Kumar Singh, a research scientist at Typhoon Research Centre, Jeju National University, South Korea, highlighted the emergence of a moderately potent El Nino. Singh pointed out that recent Nino 3.4 Sea Surface Temperature anomalies had risen to 1.1°C, indicating the establishment of El Nino’s atmospheric response. This emerging pattern is anticipated to impact the monsoon after a period of relative absence.
In conclusion, as meteorological factors like El Nino and shifting monsoon troughs influence India’s weather patterns, experts warn of a likely continuation of dry spells in various regions. While there’s optimism for rain in specific areas due to an impending monsoon low, a comprehensive revival remains uncertain, highlighting the complex and dynamic nature of the country’s monsoon systems.
