As the upcoming assembly elections draw near, various surveys conducted by organizations are shedding light on the potential outcomes. Among them, a survey carried out by News Arena has indicated that four MLAs in Pune might face the risk of losing their seats. The survey highlights the possibility of a setback for the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) in the Indapur constituency. Additionally, it suggests a potential change in four constituencies, namely Shivaji Nagar, Kasba, Cantonment, and Wadgaon Sheri.
Pune’s Political Landscape: Within Pune city, there are currently Congress MLAs in Kasba Peth, NCP MLA in Wadgaon Sheri, and BJP MLAs in Kothrud, Parvati, Shivaji Nagar, and Cantonment constituencies.
Past Election Results and Potential Shifts: The survey points out that in the 2019 elections, the Congress candidate in Shivaji Nagar constituency fell behind in the last round, leading to Siddharth Shirole’s victory by a margin of 5,124 votes. Similarly, NCP’s Sunil Tingre won by 2,820 votes in Wadgaon Sheri, and Sunil Kamble secured a victory with a margin of 5,012 votes in the Cantonment constituency. However, the survey suggests that these seats may witness different outcomes in the next assembly polls.
Kasba Peth’s By-election Impact: The recent by-election in the Kasba Peth constituency resulted in a victory for Ravindra Dhangekar. This victory gained nationwide attention and became known as the “Kasba pattern.” Nevertheless, according to the survey, the BJP is predicted to win this seat in the upcoming assembly elections. Additionally, the survey indicates that the BJP may also emerge victorious in the Indapur constituency, where Datta Bhane won by a narrow margin of 3,110 votes in 2019.
Projected Seat Distribution in Pune District: Out of the 21 assembly seats in Pune district, the survey suggests that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has the potential to secure the highest number of seats, with nine in total. The NCP may win eight seats, while the Congress could secure four seats. Currently, the NCP holds ten MLAs, the BJP has eight, and the Congress has three. According to the survey, the BJP and Congress are likely to secure one more seat each, while the NCP may face the loss of two seats.
While surveys provide valuable insights into the political landscape, it is important to remember that election outcomes can be influenced by various factors and may differ from initial predictions. As the assembly elections approach, these four MLAs in Pune will need to navigate their constituencies and campaign effectively to secure their seats or face the risk of losing them to their opponents.