As North India grapples with an unexpectedly intense cold wave this winter, meteorologists are questioning the influence of the anticipated El Niño phenomenon. Contrary to late 2023 forecasts predicting a milder winter with above-normal temperatures, the region is experiencing a severe cold wave, challenging the conventional impact of El Niño.
The deviation from forecasts can be attributed to several factors, notably the persistence of strong jet streams over North India for the last five days. These jet streams contribute to the subsidence of cold air, intensifying cold waves and cold day conditions. Surprisingly, western disturbances (WDs), essential for winter precipitation, have been notably scarce this season. Additionally, the influence of global warming is countering the expected impact of El Niño on northwest India’s weather, creating a complex interplay of meteorological conditions.
This unfavorable combination has led to substantial rainfall deficits in December and January, raising concerns about agricultural productivity and potential water shortages in the coming months.
El Niño, characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, typically alters the movement of WDs, ensuring rainfall and snowfall in the region. However, the decrease in major WD events over the past few years challenges the traditional association between El Niño and winter weather patterns.
While El Niño remains a significant climate factor, its interaction with evolving global conditions underscores the intricate nature of weather patterns, leading to unforeseen outcomes in regional climates. The unexpected severity of the cold wave and the scarcity of essential winter precipitation highlight the need for continued research and vigilance in understanding the dynamic interplay of meteorological phenomena.
