In a significant revelation, Citi Research, the research arm of Citi Group, has predicted a potential drop in petrol prices in India, sparking optimism among consumers. The forecast indicates a reduction of up to Rs. in the year 2025, offering a glimmer of relief for Indian motorists. As the global oil market undergoes fluctuations, this prediction becomes a focal point, especially in the wake of concerns about rising tensions affecting oil prices in key regions.
Crude Oil Insights: Navigating the Waves of Global Dynamics
Citi Research’s notes reveal a nuanced understanding of the oil market. The average price of Brent crude oil in Gulf countries is anticipated to be $74 per barrel in 2024. The reduction in this forecast by $1 per barrel is attributed to concerns over excess supply, shaping a market that appears to favor consumers. Looking ahead to 2025, Citi Research envisions a softer market, revising its Brent forecast to $60 per barrel, indicative of good supply and a stable market.
Potential Price Fluctuations: Navigating Short-Term Challenges
While Citi Research anticipates Brent prices remaining above $70 per barrel in the short term due to OPEC supply management, analysts caution about potential price spikes. Tensions in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Oman pose short-term risks, and with increased American oil production, a decline in demand, and global uncertainties, crude oil prices could hit $100 per barrel in 2024.
Impact on Petrol Prices in India: A Silver Lining for Consumers
If industry experts’ assessments align with Citi Research’s predictions, the impact on petrol and diesel prices in India could be substantial. A combination of lower demand, heightened U.S. production, and resolved geopolitical tensions is expected to maintain crude oil prices at lower averages. This is particularly significant for developing nations heavily reliant on imports. Analysts speculate potential reductions in petrol prices in both 2024 and 2025, with a forecasted petrol price of around Rs. 75 per liter in Delhi.
Present Scenario: Petrol and Diesel Prices in India
Currently, petrol and diesel prices in India remain stable, with the last adjustment occurring on May 21 when the Finance Minister reduced taxes. Notably, this period marks the first time since the implementation of daily price changes based on international markets that petroleum companies have refrained from adjustments.
Petrol and Diesel Prices in Major Indian Cities (per liter):
- New Delhi: Petrol ★ Rs. 96.72, Diesel ★ Rs. 89.62
- Kolkata: Petrol ★ Rs. 106.03, Diesel ★ Rs. 92.76
- Mumbai: Petrol ★ Rs. 106.31, Diesel ★ Rs. 94.27
- Chennai: Petrol ★ Rs. 102.63, Diesel ★ Rs. 94.24
- Bengaluru: Petrol ★ Rs. 101.94, Diesel ★ Rs. 87.89
- Chandigarh: Petrol ★ Rs. 96.20, Diesel ★ Rs. 84.26
- Gurugram: Petrol ★ Rs. 97.18, Diesel ★ Rs. 90.05
- Lucknow: Petrol ★ Rs. 96.57, Diesel ★ Rs. 89.76
- Noida: Petrol ★ Rs. 96.79, Diesel ★ Rs. 89.96
