As the monsoon season in India continues to exhibit weakness for nearly a month, weather experts are sounding the alarm about the potential for escalating water stress in various sectors. With the next two weeks considered crucial, the implications of an ongoing weak monsoon are being closely monitored.
According to Rajib Chattopadhyay, a scientist at the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the current situation warrants serious attention, especially as numerous sectors are at risk of experiencing water stress. Chattopadhyay highlighted the significance of the upcoming fortnight, emphasizing that if the existing conditions persist for another two weeks, the severity of water stress could intensify.
Even the Met department’s Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), which characterizes meteorological drought across different timescales, reflects concerning data. From June 1 to August 23, many districts are classified in the red zone on the seasonal SPI, underscoring the gravity of the situation. This pattern bears resemblance to the monsoon hiatus witnessed in 2002, which spanned 26 days in July.
It is noteworthy that the term “drought” has been replaced by “deficient” by the IMD to describe the state of a poor monsoon. Chattopadhyay outlined potential repercussions if water availability remains inadequate, including reduced crop yields and economic losses for farmers. As precipitation levels drop, water sources like lakes, reservoirs, and groundwater reserves are likely to shrink, compounded by heightened evaporation due to elevated temperatures.
Looking ahead, Chattopadhyay remarked that the extent to which the rain deficit can be mitigated during September remains uncertain. The well-established connection between the Indian monsoon and the El Niño phenomenon has gained attention, with reports indicating that El Niño’s influence has been pronounced this month, particularly in August. In response, preparation for contingency measures to alleviate anticipated water stress is deemed necessary.
Another climate phenomenon, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), has also garnered interest. This natural occurrence leads to a seesaw effect on the Indian Ocean’s temperature. A “positive IOD” emerges when the western region becomes warmer than the eastern part. This phase generally augurs well for monsoon rains in India, potentially offering a positive influence on the ongoing monsoon situation.
As India navigates the challenges of a weak monsoon, the next two weeks stand as a crucial period that could shape the severity of water stress in various sectors. The complex interplay of meteorological factors underscores the need for proactive measures and a comprehensive understanding of climate dynamics to manage the potential impacts effectively.
