In a surprising turn of events, Google Trends data for the Madhya Pradesh elections has unveiled a positive trend for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). As of the voting day in 2023, the BJP has edged slightly ahead of the Indian National Congress (INC), marking a significant shift from the 2018 results.
To understand this shift better, let’s delve into the historical voting data:
1985: Voting stood at 49.79%, and the INC held power.
1990: A notable shift occurred with a 4.42% increase in voting, bringing it to 54.21%, and the BJP seized power.
1993: Voting rose to 60.17% (an increase of 5.96%), leading to the INC reclaiming power.
1998: A marginal increase of 0.04% in voting to 60.21%, maintaining INC’s hold on power.
2003: Witnessing a significant surge, voting reached 67.25% (a 7.04% increase), resulting in BJP taking over.
2008: The momentum continued with a 2.53% rise in voting to 69.78%, solidifying BJP’s position.
2013: Another increase of 2.35% brought voting to 72.13%, maintaining BJP’s dominance.
2018: The most recent data indicates a substantial 3.50% rise in voting to 75.63%, leading to the INC gaining power.
The trend observed in Google Trends aligns with these historical shifts, emphasizing the potential correlation between online interest and election outcomes.
This isn’t the first time Google Trends has accurately predicted election outcomes. In previous instances, the platform successfully forecasted results for the Himachal Pradesh elections in 2017, 2019, and 2022. The data for Madhya Pradesh reveals a similar pattern, with the BJP leading in 2019 and the INC in 2018.
The trend extends beyond Madhya Pradesh, echoing in Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan. In Rajasthan’s 2018 elections, Congress led, followed by a BJP surge in 2019. Currently, the BJP maintains a consistent lead.
The intriguing possibility of using Google Trends data to predict election outcomes arises from its ability to reflect public interest and online searches. Understanding what people are searching for can potentially provide insights into the popularity of candidates and parties.
However, caution must be exercised in relying solely on Google Trends data. Limitations include potential sampling biases and susceptibility to external influences like media coverage. Additionally, the temporal nature of the data restricts its ability to track long-term trends accurately.
While Google Trends successfully predicted outcomes in the 2016 US presidential election and the 2017 UK general election, it played a crucial role in foreseeing the 2018 Indian general election results in several key states.
