In its latest report on Agri Picks, Geojit sheds light on the recent adjustments made by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) regarding global oilseed output for the 2023-24 period. The USDA has revised its estimates, impacting soybean production in key regions and influencing global market projections.
According to the report, the USDA has lowered the global oilseed output estimate for 2023-24 to 660.18 million tons, marking a decrease of 810,000 tons from the December forecast of 660.99 million tons. The report highlights that the production of oilseeds in the US is anticipated to be higher by 920,000 tons, reaching 122.37 million tons for the same period.
While soybean production forecasts have increased for Argentina, the US, Russia, China, Paraguay, and Bolivia, Brazil’s production faces a dip. The USDA attributes the rise in US oilseed forecasts to increased production of soybeans, rapeseed, and sunflower seed crops. However, lower production of peanuts and cottonseeds offsets the gains in these three oilseeds.
Global ending stocks of oilseeds for 2023-24 are now projected at 131.34 million tons, reflecting a decrease of 350,000 tons from the December estimate. The USDA forecasts global soybean output at 399 million tons, up by 100,000 tons from the previous month, citing improved yield prospects in Argentina and Paraguay due to abundant early-season rainfall.
Brazil, as the world’s largest soybean producer, is expected to face a reduction in production for 2023-24 by 4 million tons, primarily attributed to reduced rainfall impacting yield potential in specific regions. In contrast, the US and Argentina are expected to see increases in soybean production.
The report notes a rise in global soybean exports for 2023-24, with Paraguay and Russia contributing to the surge. Global ending stocks of soybeans are estimated at 114.6 million tons, showing an increase of 400,000 tons from the previous month’s projection.
The USDA maintains a season-average soybean price forecast for the US at $12.75 per bushel for 2023-24, with adjustments in soybean meal and soybean oil prices.
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts/broking houses/rating agencies are their own, and not that of the website or its management. We advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions
