Beijing : China celebrated a record-breaking grain output this year, marking the 20th consecutive bumper harvest, as reported by the People’s Daily. However, experts warn that the self-sufficiency rate does not reflect the true picture of China’s food security, given its heavy reliance on imports, according to Voice of America (VOA).
China’s annual grain output surpassed 1.39 trillion kilograms in 2023, setting an impressive milestone. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs aims to stabilize grain production in 2024, ensuring it remains above 1.3 trillion kilograms, as per China’s Central Television.
Despite these achievements, concerns arise as “food rations” self-sufficiency does not encompass all essential foodstuffs. While rice and wheat production might meet domestic needs, corn, sorghum, and legumes still require substantial imports, as reported by VOA.
The Institute of Rural Development of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences predicts a grain gap of approximately 130 million tons by 2025, accounting for 10 percent of the projected 2024 output. Genevieve Donnellon-May from the Asia Society Policy Institute highlights Beijing’s concerns about potential weaponization of food supplies and imports affecting national security.
In 2022, China’s grain imports reached 140 million tons, dwarfing its total grain output of 680 million tons, according to the National Bureau of Statistics of China. Official statistics claim a grain output above 1.3 trillion kilograms for the past two decades, but reports suggest a decline in food self-sufficiency.
Reports from the China Macroeconomic Development Forum reveal that over one-third of China’s food now relies on imports. The country’s food security level has dropped from 93.6 percent in 2000 to 65.8 percent in the past 20 years, according to a London-based Centre for Economic Policy Research report.
China’s increasing demand for food imports has global implications, leading to significant deforestation worldwide, as revealed by the study. The Renmin University of China at the China Macroeconomy Forum predicts more severe challenges in food security in the next decade due to rural urbanization and changing dietary patterns.
Karen Mancl, a professor at Ohio State University, attributes China’s declining self-sufficiency to the conversion of agricultural land for non-farm use. She emphasizes that 5 percent of agricultural land has been lost in China over the last decade, posing a significant threat.
Chinese agricultural experts report a decline in soybean self-sufficiency from 62.4 percent in 2000 to 16.6 percent two decades later. Cheap labor has contributed to China’s manufacturing success, but in agriculture, it is the opposite, with higher labor and land costs compared to the United States.
Caitlin Welsh, director of the Global Food and Water Security Programme, asserts that food self-sufficiency is a political desire rather than a realistic goal. She believes most countries, including developed ones, will need to rely on trade for a portion of their production.
To diversify its food sources, China has established cooperation with over 140 countries and regions for grain imports. Cecilia Tortajada, a professor at the University of Glasgow, highlights China’s preparedness for potential trade wars and maritime embargoes, learning from past events.
Despite these measures, concerns linger in Beijing about the vulnerability of the country’s food import supply to potential maritime embargoes by the US during military clashes or other issues, according to Donnellon-May.
