As artificial intelligence (AI) continues to advance, a forecast from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) suggests that it might impact 40% of jobs globally. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, in an interview before the World Economic Forum in Davos, discussed the potential risks and opportunities AI presents, emphasizing a “tough year ahead.” Here’s an overview of the IMF’s insights into the evolving landscape of global employment.
AI’s Reach: 40% Jobs Globally, 60% in Advanced Economies: According to the IMF chief, AI is expected to influence approximately 60% of jobs in advanced economies, while its impact globally is estimated at 40%. Georgieva highlights a critical factor — the higher the skill level required for a job, the greater the potential impact of AI. This estimation stems from a recent IMF report, which projects a significant influence on the job market.
Enhancing or Eliminating Jobs: While AI is predicted to negatively affect half of the jobs it touches, the remaining 50% might experience enhanced productivity, leading to potential income increases. Georgieva emphasized the dual nature of AI’s impact, stating, “Your job may disappear altogether — not good — or artificial intelligence may enhance your job, so you actually will be more productive and your income level may go up.”
Global Disparities and Opportunities: Georgieva stressed that emerging markets and developing economies may witness a smaller initial impact from AI but could miss out on the enhanced productivity benefits. She urged a focus on helping low-income countries seize the opportunities presented by AI. Despite the challenges, she views AI as both a concern and a “tremendous opportunity for everyone.”
AI’s Role in Economic Growth: With AI offering the potential to boost productivity levels and propel global growth, Georgieva emphasized the importance of addressing the challenges associated with its integration into the workforce. The IMF, set to publish updated economic forecasts, sees the global economy on track but underscores the need for unlocking productivity to ensure sustained positive outcomes.
2024: A Challenging Year for Fiscal Policy: Looking ahead, Georgieva anticipates 2024 to be a challenging year for fiscal policy globally. Countries face the task of addressing debt burdens from the COVID-19 pandemic while navigating election cycles. With approximately 80 countries going to the polls, governments must strike a balance between responding to voter expectations and maintaining hard-won progress against high inflation.
