The world is no stranger to pandemics, and just as the global community grapples with the COVID-19 pandemic, experts are raising concerns about the possibility of another one – “Disease X.” Here are the top 10 things you need to know about this potential threat to global health.
1. What Is Disease X? Disease X is a term coined by the World Health Organization (WHO) to represent the possibility of a serious international epidemic caused by a pathogen currently unknown to cause human disease. It serves as a theoretical concept in epidemiology, highlighting the potential for a future global health threat. Disease X could be triggered by a virus, bacterium, or fungus.
2. Birth of the Term The term “Disease X” gained recognition in February 2018 when the WHO included it in their list of blueprint priority diseases. This list also features well-known diseases such as Ebola, MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome), SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome), Nipah, Zika, and, notably, COVID-19.
3. Among the Most Dangerous Disease X holds a place in the WHO’s list of “priority diseases,” showcasing its potential danger. This list comprises diseases that have the capacity to cause international epidemics and pose significant threats to public health.
4. Estimated Lethality According to Dame Kate Bingham, a UK health expert who chaired the UK’s vaccine task force in 2020, Disease X could be a staggering 20 times deadlier than COVID-19. This prediction suggests a grim outcome, with the potential for around 50 million fatalities.
5. Unseen Threats Bingham highlights that scientists have so far identified 25 virus families, each containing thousands of individual viruses. However, there remain countless undiscovered viruses in the natural world, any of which could evolve into pandemics.
6. Factors Leading to Disease X Several factors contribute to the risk of Disease X. Globalization, characterized by increased human and goods flow worldwide, is one of the potential causes. Urbanization in overcrowded and unhygienic environments is another contributor. Climate change, heightened human-animal contact, and shortages of health workers are also cited as factors.
7. WHO’s R&D Blueprint The WHO’s Research and Development (R&D) blueprint is a global strategy designed to expedite research and development efforts when epidemics emerge. Its aim is to accelerate the creation of reliable tests, vaccines, and treatments, ultimately saving lives and averting crises.
8. Financial Preparedness Allocating necessary financial resources is one of the initial steps in preparing for Disease X. The monetary cost of inaction, as seen with COVID-19, can be immense, impacting both economic output and public health expenditure.
9. Lack of Vaccines Currently, there are no approved vaccines available for Disease X. Developing a range of prototype vaccines for potential virus families is deemed essential to address this looming threat.
10. Precautions for Individuals While the timeline of Disease X’s emergence remains uncertain, individual preparedness is crucial. Practicing good hand hygiene, covering your mouth and nose when coughing or sneezing, maintaining physical distancing from sick individuals, staying up to date with vaccinations, and adhering to public health guidelines are prudent steps to safeguard against infectious diseases.
