Pune News: A significant weather event is brewing over the Bay of Bengal, heralding the arrival of the monsoon season in India. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued forecasts indicating the formation of a low-pressure area over the southwest Bay of Bengal around May 22. While this development is anticipated to aid the advancement of the monsoon over the Andaman Sea and adjoining Bay of Bengal, concerns have been raised by some independent forecasters regarding the potential intensification of the weather system into a cyclone, with potential impacts on states like Odisha, Maharashtra, and Gujarat.
Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general of meteorology at IMD, clarified that while the low-pressure area is expected to facilitate the progression of the monsoon, its formation may not directly influence the onset of the monsoon in Kerala. However, he cautioned against ruling out the possibility of the system evolving into a cyclone, particularly given historical patterns of cyclone formation in May. The ultimate trajectory and intensity of any cyclone would determine its impact on the monsoon’s progress beyond the Andaman region.
G P Sharma, president of Skymet Weather Services, echoed similar sentiments, acknowledging the potential for the Bay of Bengal system to evolve into a cyclone. However, he expressed optimism that the cyclone, if formed, would not impede the monsoon’s progression but rather contribute to its advancement. Sharma explained that cyclones originating over the Andaman Sea tend to move away from the coast, minimizing their disruptive effects on the monsoon.
Dr. Roxy Mathew Koll, a senior climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, provided insights into the conducive conditions for the development of a low-pressure system over the south Bay of Bengal. Warm sea surface temperatures and favorable wind patterns are expected to facilitate the formation of the system. Dr. Koll highlighted the potential interplay between the early onset of the monsoon and the formation of a cyclone, suggesting that a swift northward progression of the monsoon flow could mitigate the vertical development of the cyclone. However, he noted that a weak cyclone could aid in the early advancement of the monsoon.
As India prepares for the onset of the monsoon season, meteorological experts continue to monitor developments in the Bay of Bengal closely. While uncertainties persist regarding the exact evolution of the weather system, the collective efforts of agencies like the IMD and independent forecasters aim to provide timely and accurate information to facilitate preparedness and response measures across the affected regions.
