This year’s southwest monsoon, which arrived later than usual, might also embark on its withdrawal journey earlier than anticipated, as suggested by weather experts. Indications point towards the possibility of an early withdrawal of the monsoon, potentially occurring in the second week of September, particularly in western Rajasthan. Experts also expressed concerns about the likelihood of substantial rainfall in Maharashtra in the upcoming days. The delayed onset and weakened conditions of the monsoon have resulted in below-normal rainfall across various parts of the country this year.
Madhvan Rajeevan Nair, former secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences, remarked, “Signals of an early withdrawal are emerging, but uncertainties remain. A clearer scenario may emerge in the first week of September.”
Vineet Kumar, a former researcher at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) and a research scientist at Typhoon Research Centre, Jeju National University, South Korea, shared, “Extended range forecasts suggest that the monsoon may withdraw from west Rajasthan in the second week of September. According to the latest IMD-GFS forecast, west Rajasthan is unlikely to experience any rain in the next 10 days. The extended range forecast from IMD also indicates that Maharashtra is unlikely to receive significant rainfall at least until the second week of September. Thus, overall conditions in interior Maharashtra are expected to deteriorate.”
Akshay Deoras, a research scientist at the National Centre for Atmospheric Science and the Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, United Kingdom, explained, “Studies suggest that in an El Nino year, the monsoon is generally weaker. While there have been instances of decent rainfall after the commencement of the monsoon’s withdrawal journey, the general observation is that overall rainfall tends to be subdued in most cases. It’s too early to forecast this year’s scenario, but the overall observations suggest that the chances of substantial rainfall in September are low, which could have adverse effects on sectors such as agriculture, groundwater, and overall rainfall patterns.”
According to Susmitha Joseph, deputy project director of Extended Range Prediction (ERPAS) at IITM, as of August 23, 2023, all-India monsoon rainfall stands at 7% of its long-term average. The first half of August 2023 witnessed a prolonged break in rainfall, which research indicates can lead to a deficient monsoon.
Experts have noted that El Nino is influencing the monsoon’s development, causing a significant portion of the country to experience subpar monsoon conditions. While July brought substantial rains, the latter part of the month, except for the Himalayan region, has seen limited rainfall. Despite unfavorable El Nino conditions in the Pacific Ocean, the development of positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions in the Indian Ocean could favor monsoon activity across the country. A clearer outlook will emerge as September approaches.
