New Delhi, Dec 31 – While climate change has emerged as a tough challenge for the farm sector, the government is banking on the resilience in Indian agriculture and introduction of new weather-resistant seeds to increase food production in the country.
Kharif production was hit due to the erratic monsoon marked by flooding in some states and drought in others. The growth rate of the farm sector slowed to 1.2 per cent in the July-Sept quarter giving rise to concern.
The adverse impact spilled into the ongoing rabi season with initial estimates showing the total sown area declining by over 3 per cent with a below-normal monsoon leading to moisture deficiency in the soil and decreased water storage in reservoirs. The acreage under wheat and pulses has declined by 3 per cent and 8 per cent respectively, which raised concerns over a fall in overall food production going ahead.
Senior officials point out that last year too, the country faced erratic weather conditions and yet could achieve a record food grain production of 329.68 million tonnes in the 2022-23 crop year (July-June) as per the final estimates of the Agriculture Ministry.
While initial estimates showed that the area under wheat and pulses had declined this year, officials point out that this was due to the delay in paddy harvesting on account of the unseasonal rains in September.
According to Agriculture Commissioner P.K. Singh, the area under wheat cultivation has now gone up to 30.86 million hectares as of December 22. This is only marginally lower than 31.4 million hectares sown last year.
He also said that the wheat area under climate resilient seeds has been increased which would help face terminal heat. The government has also started issuing weekly advisories to farmers in order to help them deal with adverse weather conditions.
India is the world’s second-largest producer of wheat and rice, which the government buys directly from farmers to ensure them a minimum support price (MSP). This also enables the government to maintain a buffer stock for implementing its welfare schemes of free foodgrain to the poor and release stocks in the market to control inflation when prices go up.
The MSP of pulses and oilseeds have also been raised to enhance production and reduce dependence on imports. The government is also continuing to support the farming community through different schemes like PM-KISAN, Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY), and Kisan Credit Card.
Policymakers and the scientific community are focusing on evolving dynamic response strategies to deal with this complex phenomenon of climate change, especially since vast areas in some states are still dependent on rain-fed agriculture.
There is some consolation in that the acreage for oilseeds, including mustard and rapeseed, is higher this year by 1 lakh hectares compared to 2022 which would help in reducing the country’s import bill for edible oils.
Senior officials point out that the emphasis on oilseeds reflects strategic measures to enhance self-sufficiency.
Balancing crop diversification and addressing moisture deficit will be pivotal for securing a robust foodgrain output in the upcoming season.
“Since 2014, as many as 1,888 climate resilient varieties of seeds have been developed for crops. Besides, 68 location specific climate resilient technologies have been developed and demonstrated for wider adoption among farming communities in districts and regions prone to extreme weather conditions like droughts, floods, frost and heat waves,” Minister of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare Narendra Singh Tomar informed the Lok Sabha earlier this year.
India is the world’s second-largest producer of wheat, rice and sugar, but has been forced to restrict exports of these commodities to rein in rising domestic prices. The country is the world’s largest rice exporter and has been ensuring food security in countries across Asia, Africa and the Middle East.
The ban on exports has, therefore, impacted the food availability in these countries as well. India’s agricultural exports are expected to drop by $4 billion to $5 billion this year.
However, senior government officials expect to meet the export target. Rajesh Agarwal, an additional secretary in the commerce ministry, is of the view that growth in exports of other farm commodities will offset the export deficit this year.
“If we remove agricultural commodities like wheat and rice, whose exports are controlled, other food exports are growing by over 4%,” Agarwal told journalists.
“So, despite the shortfall of about $4 billion to $5 billion that we face because of restrictions on sugar, wheat and rice, we should be able to meet last year’s export levels,” he said.
Data from Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA) showed that exports of meat and dairy, cereal preparations, and fruits and vegetables rose between April and November this year.
According to a report by rating agency ICRA, the first advance estimates of kharif production suggest foodgrain production declined to a four-year low of 148.6 million tonne, a sharp 4.6 per cent lower than last year’s final estimates.
Even crops that recorded an increase in their sown areas this year are expected to see a dip in output, including sugarcane (-11.4 per cent), rice (-3.8 per cent) and coarse cereals (-6.5 per cent).
“Notably, the decline in the output of most crops is larger than the fall in their area sown, reflecting a contraction in yields,” the ICRA report added.
A weaker rural economy also prompted the rating firm to add downside risks to its forecast of a 0-2 per cent growth in tractor sales for the year, after they declined 3.7 per cent in the first half and 0.5 per cent through October and November.
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