India’s Kharif Crop Outlook Takes a Hit as Rice Production Falls by 3%
The 2023-24 Kharif season in India is facing a major setback, with rice production expected to decrease by 3.35% compared to the previous year. This decline, as indicated by the first advanced estimate, is a cause for concern and can be attributed to the erratic monsoon patterns that have plagued the nation.
Rice, one of the staple cereals of the Kharif season, has been adversely affected by the untimely weather conditions. Despite higher-than-normal acreage, the production of rice is projected to reach only 106.31 million tonnes, a stark contrast to the 110 million tonnes forecasted in the third advanced estimate released in May earlier this year. The inconsistency in the monsoon has been a significant factor contributing to this decline.
However, rice is not the only crop grappling with production woes. The first advanced estimate suggests that all major Kharif crops are expected to see a decrease in production this year. Crops like moong, urad, soybean, and sugarcane are leading this unfortunate trend.
The downturn in crop production can be linked to a prolonged dry spell experienced in August and the uneven onset of the monsoon season. These challenging weather conditions have raised concerns about food security and the government’s ability to combat rising food inflation.
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) also hinted at a potential 2-million-tonne decline in rice production for the Kharif season, reflecting the severity of the situation.
It is essential to note that the first production assessment for the 2023-24 Kharif season is primarily based on the average yield over the past three years and may undergo changes following yield estimates based on actual crop cutting experiments.
Despite the decline, the statement highlighted that the area under rice cultivation is estimated to be higher by approximately 0.2 million hectares compared to the previous year’s final estimate and around 0.45 million hectares over the average rice area. This points to a need for more effective measures to mitigate the effects of future monsoon fluctuations.
While rice production is expected to be higher than the average production in recent years, the overall outlook for Kharif crops remains grim. A significant decline in production can intensify India’s reliance on imports for crucial items like edible oils and pulses, putting added pressure on the government to manage food inflation effectively.
The erratic southwest monsoon, largely influenced by the adverse impact of El Nino, played a pivotal role in these unexpected production challenges. The monsoon season commenced late and failed to gain momentum, resulting in an alarming 9% shortfall in June. Conversely, July witnessed an abundant surplus of rainfall, totaling 13%.
August brought another setback with a significant rain deficiency of 36%, one of the highest in recent history. However, as the nation braced itself for drought-like conditions, September saw a sudden resurgence in rainfall.
Statistically, the June-to-September season ended with a 5.6% rainfall deficit, classifying the 2023 monsoon as ‘below normal,’ a distinction not seen in over four years. The total rainfall from June 1 to September 30 was approximately 821 millimeters, compared to the normal level of 869 millimeters, amounting to 94% of the Long Period Average (LPA).
The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) had predicted rainfall to be around 96% of LPA, with a model error of plus or minus 4%.
Kharif crops production 2023-24 (first estimate)
| Crops | 2022-23* | 2023-24** | % Change |
| Rice | 110 | 106.31 | -3.35 |
| Maize | 23.48 | 22.48 | -4.26 |
| Tur | 3.43 | 3.42 | -0.29 |
| Moong | 1.71 | 1.4 | -18.13 |
| Urad | 1.8 | 1.5 | -16.67 |
| Total Foodgrains | 155.11 | 148.56 | -4.22 |
| Groundnut | 8.49 | 7.82 | -7.89 |
| Soybean | 14.97 | 11.52 | -23.05 |
| Sugarcane | 494.22 | 434.79 | -12.03 |
| Cotton | 34.34 | 31.65 | -7.83 |
| Jute | 9.1 | 9.19 | 0.99 |
*As per third advanced estimate released in May 2023 **As per the first advanced estimate released on October 27, 2023 Source: Ministry of Agriculture
In conclusion, the declining production of rice and other major Kharif crops poses a significant challenge to India’s food security and inflation control efforts. Addressing the impact of erratic monsoon patterns is crucial to ensuring a stable and secure food supply in the country.
